EMIS 2017 Journal Articles 2017

Spatio-temporal changes in pre-exposure prophylaxis uptake among MSM in mainland France between 2016 and 2021: a Bayesian small area approach with MSM population estimation

J. Int. AIDS Soc. 2023, 26:e26089 (doi: 10.1002/jia2.26089)

Authors: Haoyi Wang, Jean-Michel Molina, Rosemary Dray-Spira, Axel J. Schmidt, Ford Hickson, David van de Vijver, Kai J. Jonas



In France, oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention has been publicly available since 2016, mainly targeting at men who have sex with men (MSM). Reliable and robust estimations of the actual PrEP uptake among MSM on a localized level can provide additional insights to identify and better reach marginalized MSM within current HIV prevention service provision. This study used national pharmaco-epidemiology surveillance data and regional MSM population estimations to model the spatio-temporal distribution of PrEP uptake among MSM in France 2016–2021 to identify marginalized MSM at risk for HIV and increase their PrEP uptake.


We first applied Bayesian spatial analyses with survey-surveillance-based HIV incidence data as a spatial proxy to estimate the size of (1) regional HIV-negative MSM populations and (2) MSM who could be eligible for PrEP use according to French PrEP guidelines. We then applied Bayesian spatio-temporal ecological regression modelling to estimate the regional prevalence and relative probability of the overall- and new-PrEP uptake from 2016 to 2021 across France.


HIV-negative and PrEP-eligible MSM populations vary regionally across France. Île-de-France was estimated to have the highest MSM density compared to other French regions. According to the final spatio-temporal model, the relative proba- bility of overall PrEP uptake was heterogeneous across France but remained stable over time. Urban areas have higher-than- average probabilities of PrEP uptake. The prevalence of PrEP use increased steadily (ranging from 8.8% [95% credible interval 8.5%;9.0%] in Nouvelle-Aquitaine to 38.2% [36.5%;39.9%] in Centre-Val-de-Loire in 2021).


Our results show that using Bayesian spatial analysis as a novel methodology to estimate the localized HIV- negative MSM population is feasible and applicable. Spatio-temporal models showed that despite the increasing prevalence of PrEP use in all regions, geographical disparities and inequalities of PrEP uptake continued to exist over time. We identified regions that would benefit from greater tailoring and delivery efforts. Based on our findings, public health policies and HIV prevention strategies could be adjusted to better combat HIV infections and to accelerate ending the HIV epidemic.

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EMIS 2017 Journal Articles 2017

Determinants of PrEP Uptake, Intention and Awareness in the Netherlands: A Socio-Spatial Analysis

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Jul 20;19(14):8829. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19148829.

Authors: Haoyi Wang, Oladipupo Shobowale, Chantal den Daas, Eline Op de Coul, Bouko Bakker, Aryanti Radyowijati, Koenraad Vermey, Arjan van Bijnen, Wim Zuilhof , Kai J Jonas


PrEP uptake in the Netherlands is growing but remains at suboptimal levels. Hence, the analysis of hurdles is paramount. Given the initial focus of PrEP provision among men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) via a demonstration project that was launched in June 2015, AmPrEP in Amsterdam, and pharmacies in the main urban areas (so called “Randstad”, entailing Amsterdam, Utrecht, Leiden, The Hague and Rotterdam), investigating regional differences is necessary. This study seeks to unravel regional differences jointly with the psycho-social determinants of PrEP uptake. This cross-sectional study included 3232 HIV-negative MSM recruited via the Dutch subsample of the European-MSM-Internet-Survey in late 2017 (EMIS-2017), which aimed to inform interventions for MSM who are highly affected by infections with HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. Prevalence and the standardised prevalence ratio (SPR) of PrEP awareness, intention and uptake were measured on a regional level (Randstad vs. the rest of the country). Multi-level logistic modelling was conducted to identify the association of PrEP uptake with PrEP awareness and intention, socio-demographic, psycho-social determinants and random effects from regional differences. MSM from the Randstad used more PrEP (SPR = 1.4 vs. 0.7) compared to the rest of the country, but there were minor differences for awareness and intention. The regional distinction was estimated to explain 4.6% of the PrEP use variance. We observed a greater influence from PrEP intention (aOR = 4.5, 95% CI 2.0-10.1), while there was limited influence from the awareness of PrEP (aOR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.04-4.4). Lower education (aOR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.2-0.9) was negatively associated with PrEP uptake; however, no significant difference was found between middle (aOR = 1.2, 95% CI 0.7-2.0) and high education. We showed that regional differences-MSM in non-urban regions-and other psycho-social determinants account for lower PrEP uptake. Based on these findings, more fine-tuned PrEP access with a focus on non-urban regions can be implemented, and tailored campaigns increasing intention/use can be conducted among target populations.

Available online