Eurosurveillance, 2026, 31(31):pii=2500913. (doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.31.2500913).
Authors: Disa Hansson, Anastasia Pharris, Axel Jeremias Schmidt, Kai J Jonas, Ulrich Marcus, Diamantis Plachouras, Liselotte Diaz Högberg, Otilia Mårdh, Jose Canevari
Abstract
Background. Doxycycline post-exposure prophylaxis (doxy-PEP) has been shown to reduce the incidence of chlamydia and syphilis among men who have sex with men (MSM) at high risk of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). However, doxy-PEP adds antibiotic exposure and may select for tetracycline resistance in both target and bystander bacteria, raising concerns about antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Quantifying additional antibiotic consumption from doxy-PEP is important for assessing its potential AMR impact at population level.
Aim. We estimated the potential increase in doxycycline consumption attributable to doxy-PEP among MSM using HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) and compared it with overall doxycycline and tetracycline-class consumption.
Methods. We used Monte Carlo simulation to estimate annual doxycycline use from doxy-PEP among MSM using PrEP. We estimated population size from the 2024 European MSM Internet Survey and derived doxy-PEP uptake and prescribing frequency from expert elicitation. Estimated consumption in defined daily doses (DDD) per year was compared with tetracycline-class and doxycycline antibiotic use reported by the European Surveillance of Antimicrobial Consumption Network.
Results. Doxy-PEP among MSM using PrEP in the EU/EEA could result in an estimated 4.4 million DDDs of doxycycline annually (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.5–18.1 million), corresponding to a 1.9% increase (95% CrI: 0.2–7.7) relative to 2023 doxycycline consumption.
Conclusions. The estimated Doxy-PEP use constitutes a non-negligible share of total doxycycline consumption in the EU/EEA. Monitoring doxy-PEP uptake and AMR indicators will be essential as more countries consider integrating this intervention into STI prevention strategies.
Methodological note. Because EMIS-2024 overrepresents sexually active MSM, a bias correction factor was applied when extrapolating estimates to the wider population. The correction factor was derived by comparing self-reported syphilis incidence among MSM in EMIS-2024 with the corresponding reported 2023 syphilis incidence from The European Surveillance System (TESSy), hosted by ECDC. The ratio between the EMIS-2024 and TESSy incidences was assumed to reflect the degree of oversampling of highly sexually active MSM. The estimated number of PrEP users was therefore calculated by dividing the unadjusted EMIS estimate by this bias correction factor (2.32).